Thursday, April 10, 2008
YO
Dude you are in so much shit right now. You'd better get on the ball or you will be fucked.
There's so much shit that needs to be done I don't even know where to start.
Don't bother trying to make a comprehensive list because you won't be able to do it.
First things first: Money. You have none in the bank. Let's take care of that tonight.
If you can't figure out what you're doing, then do something!
*find phone
*get car tomorrow.
1. Gather all statements.
2. Tally statements.
3. Find all your checks and cash.
4. Deposit the checks.
5. Check your online statements.
*set up computer
You have to start making a living with this stock market stuff. When you have profits, TAKE SOME.
Quick preview of tomorrow's action.
I think the market will be down or up big tomorrow. Act accordingly. Cash out everything if you must.
Here's the thing. You have 110k right now. Thank god. With some of that money you could have been making more money instead of sitting there. Sell some! Play with about 10k.
There's so much shit that needs to be done I don't even know where to start.
Don't bother trying to make a comprehensive list because you won't be able to do it.
First things first: Money. You have none in the bank. Let's take care of that tonight.
If you can't figure out what you're doing, then do something!
*find phone
*get car tomorrow.
1. Gather all statements.
2. Tally statements.
3. Find all your checks and cash.
4. Deposit the checks.
5. Check your online statements.
*set up computer
You have to start making a living with this stock market stuff. When you have profits, TAKE SOME.
Quick preview of tomorrow's action.
I think the market will be down or up big tomorrow. Act accordingly. Cash out everything if you must.
Here's the thing. You have 110k right now. Thank god. With some of that money you could have been making more money instead of sitting there. Sell some! Play with about 10k.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Socialism
The true essence of socialism and communism is the intent to help your society and community. It's the idea of giving up YOUR labor to help your neighbor, not someone else's. Why does it matter if there's one rich guy somewhere? A communist/socialist should begin this immediately.
If a perfect society is achieved, does it have the right to force people into it?
Maybe it's a swing, a cycle. When it gets too socialistic, it swings back to freedom.
If a perfect society is achieved, does it have the right to force people into it?
Maybe it's a swing, a cycle. When it gets too socialistic, it swings back to freedom.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Get responsible.
More and more, this looks like it could be next: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2000-02-08&en=2000-07-08&id=p15565798669
Clear out 1/2 on a bottom tomorrow. If Wednesday starts to rise, clear out and start trading up/down.
Futes can't seem to break wednesday's low. If we don't get below 1360 tomorrow, clear out.
Being a man, an adult means you face up to your challenges rather than making yourself the #1 priority at every turn. There are other people in your life. Remember that. Don't fail them just because you're not feeling well.
Clear out 1/2 on a bottom tomorrow. If Wednesday starts to rise, clear out and start trading up/down.
Futes can't seem to break wednesday's low. If we don't get below 1360 tomorrow, clear out.
Being a man, an adult means you face up to your challenges rather than making yourself the #1 priority at every turn. There are other people in your life. Remember that. Don't fail them just because you're not feeling well.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Wake the fuck up.
What are you doing? You sat and watched 500000 turn into 150. Actually 130. And some of it, you slept though.
Snap out of it. I know you've considered the options, but why were you asleep today at 10, the only selling opportunity of the day? Would you have sold it then? You were supposed to but I'm sure you would have just sat there.
If we don't get a huge dropoff tomorrow, you need to move some positions and start doing some trading. Forget about MER. Get some money out and make some with it.
Snap out of it. I know you've considered the options, but why were you asleep today at 10, the only selling opportunity of the day? Would you have sold it then? You were supposed to but I'm sure you would have just sat there.
If we don't get a huge dropoff tomorrow, you need to move some positions and start doing some trading. Forget about MER. Get some money out and make some with it.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
4-02 Close
Today went about as well as I could have possibly hoped for.
Stayed about even, I should have made some moves but I didn't. Dummy.
Here's the thing, the chart tells me we're going to get a repeat of August/September.
Test this theory on a hourly basis. If it holds, we should get a series of small declines. Big decline, and maybe hold a little more - if it starts to go up, then cash out immediately.
What else happened today?
VIX bounced off the support line - THANK GOD. But continue watching this.
We have 13 trading days left for my options.
For Mer to get to 30, it will have to drop a dollar (2-3% a day, or over 12 % a week!) Can this happen? It sure would be unprecedented.
If the pattern follows, then MER will drop too slow for my 30s to be worth anything. If tomorrow doesn't bring a big drop, cash out. Even if the drop is substantial, start cashing out.
One really bad thing: the Volume today was pitiful. Absolutely pitiful. But Mer is still under the trend line and looks more likely to repeat the action from november rather than august/september.
The short side argument is that november is a better fit because the events in august/sept where when nobody knew we had problems.
The long side argument says look at the volume - and people are convinced the worst is over, evidenced by the rally from yesterday and the anemic perfomance today despite bernanke.
Remember to keep an open mind. Follow the action carefully and make the decisions based on the events of the day (but also take technicals into account)
Scratch the november thing with mer. this shit looks just like december. that would be BAD, or good. More and more, december looks more and more likely. this means you gotta get out NOW.
EXCEPT - December was MUCH more oversold than it is now.
If MER is actually in the phase where it goes up, this might explain the volume of the Julys. Cuz thtat's when things will start to blow up.
I HAVE to start getting out of the 30s.
Stayed about even, I should have made some moves but I didn't. Dummy.
Here's the thing, the chart tells me we're going to get a repeat of August/September.
Test this theory on a hourly basis. If it holds, we should get a series of small declines. Big decline, and maybe hold a little more - if it starts to go up, then cash out immediately.
What else happened today?
VIX bounced off the support line - THANK GOD. But continue watching this.
We have 13 trading days left for my options.
For Mer to get to 30, it will have to drop a dollar (2-3% a day, or over 12 % a week!) Can this happen? It sure would be unprecedented.
If the pattern follows, then MER will drop too slow for my 30s to be worth anything. If tomorrow doesn't bring a big drop, cash out. Even if the drop is substantial, start cashing out.
One really bad thing: the Volume today was pitiful. Absolutely pitiful. But Mer is still under the trend line and looks more likely to repeat the action from november rather than august/september.
The short side argument is that november is a better fit because the events in august/sept where when nobody knew we had problems.
The long side argument says look at the volume - and people are convinced the worst is over, evidenced by the rally from yesterday and the anemic perfomance today despite bernanke.
Remember to keep an open mind. Follow the action carefully and make the decisions based on the events of the day (but also take technicals into account)
Scratch the november thing with mer. this shit looks just like december. that would be BAD, or good. More and more, december looks more and more likely. this means you gotta get out NOW.
EXCEPT - December was MUCH more oversold than it is now.
If MER is actually in the phase where it goes up, this might explain the volume of the Julys. Cuz thtat's when things will start to blow up.
I HAVE to start getting out of the 30s.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
4-1 Research
Important: Gap up days generally don't fill right away!!! As a matter of fact most gap up days follow up the following day by going up again!!
What to do with Mer:
As soon as Mer's price tomorrow exceeds today's high, sell puts.
Watch the vix carefully tomorrow.
Otherwise, hold them until the price reaches near yesterdy's close, then sell.
day trade HBs.
Remember research.
Watch out for 2 possible scenarios for financials - 1: follows xhb, 2: follows previous pattern.
Remember that the MAs will cross at some point. Especially after the gap has become the widest.
It might be time for the financials to cross.
Mer might be doing what it did in november. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p36168354977
Or august/september:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MER&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p04615622781
Mer is still in the middle of the channel. That means upside is 50.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p36168354977
Look at this: Will tomorrow work out like november/december? or august september?
If you don't have an answer REAL FAST tomorrow, sell and get out.
What to do with Mer:
As soon as Mer's price tomorrow exceeds today's high, sell puts.
Watch the vix carefully tomorrow.
Otherwise, hold them until the price reaches near yesterdy's close, then sell.
day trade HBs.
Remember research.
Watch out for 2 possible scenarios for financials - 1: follows xhb, 2: follows previous pattern.
Remember that the MAs will cross at some point. Especially after the gap has become the widest.
It might be time for the financials to cross.
Mer might be doing what it did in november. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p36168354977
Or august/september:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MER&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p04615622781
Mer is still in the middle of the channel. That means upside is 50.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p36168354977
Look at this: Will tomorrow work out like november/december? or august september?
If you don't have an answer REAL FAST tomorrow, sell and get out.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Strategies
What's the best strategy in maximizing profits and staying safe?
I think you need differing strategies depending on what your view of the situation is.
In the beginning, you should start loading up your positions, quickly. Which ones?
I think it's good to dig in with a fair amount of short positions, and some OTM puts. This way if the stock only tanks a little you still have the short profit.
Unloading? At the end, starting from the middle. The goal should be to unload most of your positions at the end.
What to do in an upmarket? well, any time you fear something might be coming, buy some OTM puts. When stocks start to rise, my natural tendency will be to ADD puts. When you add puts on a rise, the amount of ITMness should be reflected in what you're allowed to buy.
When should I sell puts? Well, first let's set a limit on how much you can reload on puts. Once is the only acceptable number. You can break it down into 2 smaller positions. 100 + 100 or 50+50.
Twice, that's IT.
Once you've bought the second put, on further rises you should clear shorts.
I think you need differing strategies depending on what your view of the situation is.
In the beginning, you should start loading up your positions, quickly. Which ones?
I think it's good to dig in with a fair amount of short positions, and some OTM puts. This way if the stock only tanks a little you still have the short profit.
Unloading? At the end, starting from the middle. The goal should be to unload most of your positions at the end.
What to do in an upmarket? well, any time you fear something might be coming, buy some OTM puts. When stocks start to rise, my natural tendency will be to ADD puts. When you add puts on a rise, the amount of ITMness should be reflected in what you're allowed to buy.
When should I sell puts? Well, first let's set a limit on how much you can reload on puts. Once is the only acceptable number. You can break it down into 2 smaller positions. 100 + 100 or 50+50.
Twice, that's IT.
Once you've bought the second put, on further rises you should clear shorts.
Protection
When you're not sure which way the market will go, short defensively and buy some way OTM calls. This way if you're wrong, you'll still have calls. normal this could be done at the bottom of a bear run, but you can also do this when the trend is in the middle and you're not sure which way it will go.
How to short defensively? I would say you should not add any positions while it goes down, and start taking profits on each 5% rise.
How to short defensively? I would say you should not add any positions while it goes down, and start taking profits on each 5% rise.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Game Plan 2/13
Start getting into HB puts, and SRS puts.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/11/point-of-no-return.html
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=22625#280298
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=27640#272483
http://boombustblog.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/11/point-of-no-return.html
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=22625#280298
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=27640#272483
http://boombustblog.com/
How confident are you?
when ending the day, think about your level of confidence in the stock's drop tomorrow. bet that much money.
Game Plan 2/12
Looked at charts. CTX is "look out below". So is AMD. Blah blah. Look at the damn charts in the morning.
The point of this is actually for strategy. It looks like some tech stocks like Goog are going cyclical in opposite to finance and RE. It might be time to start easing into GOOG or others like it. Watch Goog like a hawk. Starting picking up some shorts or puts. Find other tech short candidates.
Ease into CVLT.
Add to SRS.
The point of this is actually for strategy. It looks like some tech stocks like Goog are going cyclical in opposite to finance and RE. It might be time to start easing into GOOG or others like it. Watch Goog like a hawk. Starting picking up some shorts or puts. Find other tech short candidates.
Ease into CVLT.
Add to SRS.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
2/8 Game Plan
WM Bounced off its 20 EMA hard today. If tomorrow doesn't bring a significant drop past, or to the EMA, (17.02) go ALL OUT.
CTX looks safe, and may even be worth adding to. It dropped past all the MAs yesterday, today it bounced down from its 20 EMA and settled comfortably below all MAs. Reasonable confidence in CTX if it does not restest any of the MA's. But if it fails from here and the 20 EMA crosses, it's BIG TUMBLE time - perhaps I should cash out some WM for CTX.
Note: KD feels this is in a weird spot so watch it closely.
LEN is in a weird place - sort of where CTX was about a week ago. Watch it closely tomorrow. It's also pretty overbought.
AMD is well below all significant MAs and is relatively overbought. May be a good time to start adding some shorts. They're also having some process problems so I think you can confidently short from here. Add 5% going down.
CFC just had a couple of weird days where it tested its 20 EMA. Yesterday it bounced down from it, and today it rallied above it and then settled slightly above. Watch it tomorrow and if there's any sign of weakness, short the crap out of it.
CTX looks safe, and may even be worth adding to. It dropped past all the MAs yesterday, today it bounced down from its 20 EMA and settled comfortably below all MAs. Reasonable confidence in CTX if it does not restest any of the MA's. But if it fails from here and the 20 EMA crosses, it's BIG TUMBLE time - perhaps I should cash out some WM for CTX.
Note: KD feels this is in a weird spot so watch it closely.
LEN is in a weird place - sort of where CTX was about a week ago. Watch it closely tomorrow. It's also pretty overbought.
AMD is well below all significant MAs and is relatively overbought. May be a good time to start adding some shorts. They're also having some process problems so I think you can confidently short from here. Add 5% going down.
CFC just had a couple of weird days where it tested its 20 EMA. Yesterday it bounced down from it, and today it rallied above it and then settled slightly above. Watch it tomorrow and if there's any sign of weakness, short the crap out of it.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
2/6 Game Plan
Today's objective is to get my holdings down to acceptable levels.
The basic strategy is as follows:
Short 10k.
Unload 10k of puts.
(And on and on)
Alternate game plan - BUY into rally, then sell puts, at the highest price first.
Also,
Start tracking SRS and FXP. Start edging into either. Buy FXP at night.
It might not be too late to short RVBD. Start watching it.
The basic strategy is as follows:
Short 10k.
Unload 10k of puts.
(And on and on)
Alternate game plan - BUY into rally, then sell puts, at the highest price first.
Also,
Start tracking SRS and FXP. Start edging into either. Buy FXP at night.
It might not be too late to short RVBD. Start watching it.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Dashboard
This is the main page I should look at.
Links:
Reading
Charts
Research
Today
Marketwatch Calendar: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars/economic.asp
Barrons market calendar http://online.barrons.com/public/page/markets_calendar.html
Links:
Reading
Charts
Research
Today
Marketwatch Calendar: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars/economic.asp
Barrons market calendar http://online.barrons.com/public/page/markets_calendar.html
1/30 Preview
Comments:
Predictions & Possible moves:
Major events:
Pre-Market tasks:
Apply for loan at:
United Teletech
205 Hance Ave.
Tinton Falls, NJ 07724
Find credit card balance transfer checks
Finish application for Commerce Bank Overdraft
Deposit checks into Wachovia and wire funds to Zecco.
Bank Name: JP Morgan Chase
Bank Address: 277 Park Ave, New York, New York 10172
ABA: 021000021 (for non-domestic wires, use SWIFT Code CHASUS33)
Acct: 066600030
FBO: Penson Financial Services
(address Penson: 1700 Pacific Av. (suite 1400), Dallas, Texas 75201)
FFC: "Your Name" "Your Zecco Trading Account number"
Predictions & Possible moves:
Major events:
Pre-Market tasks:
Apply for loan at:
United Teletech
205 Hance Ave.
Tinton Falls, NJ 07724
Find credit card balance transfer checks
Finish application for Commerce Bank Overdraft
Deposit checks into Wachovia and wire funds to Zecco.
Bank Name: JP Morgan Chase
Bank Address: 277 Park Ave, New York, New York 10172
ABA: 021000021 (for non-domestic wires, use SWIFT Code CHASUS33)
Acct: 066600030
FBO: Penson Financial Services
(address Penson: 1700 Pacific Av. (suite 1400), Dallas, Texas 75201)
FFC: "Your Name" "Your Zecco Trading Account number"
1/29 Trading Summary
Commentary:
Lessons learned:
Today's moves, good vs. bad:
Current game plan:
Upcoming Calendar:
Lessons learned:
Today's moves, good vs. bad:
Current game plan:
Upcoming Calendar:
To do list
Well, one of the reasons I created this blog was to have a place where I can keep track of things I need to do. Here are some of them:
Strategies:
Create shorts in various sectors - for example, the tech sector really kept me alive.
Rules:
Don't ever overload on a position.
Things to do before making a trade:
Things to do daily:
Study technicals
Check news?
Projects:
Set up a dashboard for myself.
Set up CDs.
Take out 1/2 of all gains and LEAVE IT ALONE.
3. Overload on a position.
4. Set a limit on everything.
5. Set up buy stops.
6. Learn how to consolidate and exit positions.
7. Drag your feet, get cocky.
8. Review positions daily.
9. Completely exist positions unless you know what you're doing.
Strategies:
Create shorts in various sectors - for example, the tech sector really kept me alive.
Rules:
Don't ever overload on a position.
Things to do before making a trade:
Things to do daily:
Study technicals
Check news?
Projects:
Set up a dashboard for myself.
Set up CDs.
Take out 1/2 of all gains and LEAVE IT ALONE.
3. Overload on a position.
4. Set a limit on everything.
5. Set up buy stops.
6. Learn how to consolidate and exit positions.
7. Drag your feet, get cocky.
8. Review positions daily.
9. Completely exist positions unless you know what you're doing.
All or Bankruptcy
Well, that sure sounds stupid, but that's how this journey started.
I saw an opportunity to make a lot of money in the market, and decided to give it everything I had. I decided that I'd rather be poor and bankrupt than continue to live with a moderate amount of money and continue to work to live.
This journey started in August 2007 so I have a lot of catching up to do, but for now I'm going to use this space to record my progress and to keep me focused.
Wish me luck.
I saw an opportunity to make a lot of money in the market, and decided to give it everything I had. I decided that I'd rather be poor and bankrupt than continue to live with a moderate amount of money and continue to work to live.
This journey started in August 2007 so I have a lot of catching up to do, but for now I'm going to use this space to record my progress and to keep me focused.
Wish me luck.
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